East Twin Cities

The Minnesota Department of Health and the School of Public Health at the University of Minnesota explains why their research projects a higher COVID-19 death rate in Minnesota that is drastically different from an academic study widely shared by the University of Washington.

The University of Washington academic study predicts a peak range of 107 to 1,566 COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota, but their forecasts only gives the death rate up to August 4.

The Minnesota Department of Health model extends the forecast for at least one year and accounts for multiple peaks as the pandemic continues, according to Bring Me The News.

The Minnesota model also accounts for the changing needs for ICU beds and ventilators.  

"The modeling uses a variety of variables to make assumptions about what could happen under different scenarios," according to Bring Me The News.

Gov. Tim Walz was partially influenced to extend the state's stay-at-home order to May 4, based on the data presented in Scenario 4, according to Bring Me The News.

Scenario 4 shows the death toll if the stay-at home order is extended through May 10.

The number of COVID-19 deaths in the state would be between 9,000 to 36,000 people.

The top ICU demand would be between 2,700 and 4,800 and the peak would come between 13 to 21 weeks, according to the model's Scenario 4.

The Minnesota model also shows the cases for hospitalization, ICU and mortality rates rise as the age group goes up.

The mortality rate for the age group of zero through nine is 0%, but the age group 80+ has a mortality rate of .111%, the largest of any group in Minnesota.  

Stefan Gildemeister, the Minnesota State Health Economist, explains the difference between the Minnesota Model and the University of Washington Model.

"The big difference is they're predicting four months," Gildemeister told Bring Me The News. "At the end of the four months, that team is saying 93% of the population won't have immunity. So what will happen at that time?"

Minnesota's model explains what happens after the four months, according to Gildemeister.

The governor is also taking into account the hospital models which are much worse than the Minnesota model and the need for businesses to reopen in the state, according to Bring Me The News.

These models are expected to change as more is learned about COVID-19.